It’s what we’ve all been waiting for! The IEM Cologne 2026 Major is finally moving into its playoff stage after the conclusion of Stage 3 of the Major.
Only eight teams remain at IEM Cologne 2026 Major. See the playoff bracket, the schedule, and catch up with the form of all the teams! Who will take the first Counter-Strike Major of 2026? Let’s find out.
Thursday June 18:
- G2 vs Spirit – 15:45 CEST/13:45 UTC/9:45 EDT
- Falcons vs Vitality – 19:00 CEST/17:00 UTC/13:00 EDT
Friday June 19:
- Aurora vs BetBoom – 15:45 CEST/13:45 UTC/9:45 EDT
- 9z vs Furia – 19:00 CEST/17:00 UTC/13:00 EDT
Who are the favorites to win the IEM Cologne 2026 Major?
There are no doubts after Stage 3 that the two teams on everyone’s lips are the favorites to lift the Major trophy in the Lanxess Arena: Vitality and Spirit.
Vitality’s position as the favorites needs no clarification. The roster is on the brink of a history-equalling threepeat that would likely put to bed any debate regarding their status as the greatest roster in Counter-Strike history.
Sure, Vitality dropped a series to 9z. They also went 3-1 in Budapest and Austin. How did that end? As it always does, with Vitality lifting the trophy and Dan ‘apEX’ Madesclaire laughing at the doubters.
Spirit’s credentials are based on the rapid maturation of Boris ‘magixx’ Vorobiev as IGL. His return to the active roster and immediate promotion to IGLing showed few signs of progress before a strong IEM Rio was followed by a startlingly dominant PGL Astana victory.
The Russian IGL is now topping the charts in flash assists, setting up his star pieces, who are now thriving. That does not just mean “donk go kill” as the much-repeated meme goes. That means Andrey ‘tN1R’ Tatarinovich has flourished into the star rifler he was always meant to be in this roster, a huge difference-maker to a roster that has severely lacked a reliable second star since the core’s inception.
The way Spirit blew through Stage 2 was terrifying, only dropping 10 rounds in four maps, but its ability to adjust and overcome adversity against 9z and Aurora also showed something about the roster and magixx’s leadership: A greater feel for the game that only comes with graduating from an apprentice IGL to the real thing.
The potential contest between Vitality and Spirit is an eye-watering one. Can Danil ‘donk’ Kryshkovets blow away a team like Vitality, or will that winning experience and perfect role balance overcome Spirit’s firepower?
The only negative is that the match, if it happens, is guaranteed to be a semi-final, rather than the Best of 5 Grand Final. What a shame!
Can FURIA, Falcons, Aurora & G2 challenge?
FURIA fans may be perturbed by their above omission as favorites. The Brazilians, after all, went 3-0 and Vitality didn’t. The issue is that they haven’t shown the same level they played last year for a whole event so far in 2026.
Generally, they’ve either looked bad in the groups or looked good, then fallen off (no pun intended) in the playoffs, as was the case at IEM Rio after Gabriel ‘FalleN’ Toledo’s retirement announcement. IEM Kraków was the closest to 2025’s level throughout, but the Grand Final exposed their crumbling map pool, something the roster is now only finding again.
If FURIA are more coherent in their executions, and if they can get Danil ‘molodoy’ Golubenko and Yuri ‘yuurih’ Santos online at the same time, they absolutely can win, but they’ve not shown it so far this year. Certainly, a Grand Final berth seems easily in their reach because of the bracket, but when it comes to that Grand Final, I don’t see them being favorites over Vitality or Spirit.
If FURIA do win, it would be one hell of a full circle moment for FalleN, 10 years on from the last IEM Cologne Major, which he won with the famous Luminosity/SK roster in 2016.
Falcons’ Counter-Strike is still a little messy. Their T-sides are still a bit undercooked, and Finn ‘karrigan’ Andersen is individually suffering as he tries to be the general to his soldiers.
That being said, they have taken strides even at this event. Their win over NAVI delivered in the classic karrigan chaos, but it also showed improvement in what can be controlled.
Still, they’re not going to outmaneuver Vitality at this stage of the roster. They’ll want to limit their mistakes and enable the individuals we have seen to overcome Vitality through their ability.
karrigan is arguably the perfect IGL to enable those stars, and alleviate the fall in performance the roster has so often seen when under pressure in big moments. You could argue that his inability to deliver on that promise so far is due to a lack of reps. Can this be the moment for more karrigan magic against Vitality of all teams?
Aurora feels like the least likely of the established teams to actually win the Major, but that fits with their theme of flying under the radar at this event, while showing incredible form that honestly looks better than the rest of their 2026 so far.
With rumors swirling over Aurora moving in an international direction, the roster may be enjoying a lightening of pressure and expectations. Certainly, if Özgür ‘w0xic’ Eker’s incredible 1v3 against 9z is anything to go by, this is the most expressive we’ve seen Aurora in a while.
Like FURIA, the bracket definitely favours them. Will they make the most of it, or will their downcast, emo tendencies re-emerge when a Major title seems just within reach?
As for G2, qualification for the playoffs is right on the border of meeting and surpassing expectations. They did not convince me through their play that they had markedly evolved at this event. Their steady level took advantage of flailing rosters.
A matchup against Spirit is likely an insurmountable task for this G2 roster, unless they find an out-of-sorts Spirit in the playoffs as well.
Can the minnows cause the ultimate shock in the IEM Cologne 2026 Playoffs?
It’s not a Major without an unexpected fairytale run to the playoffs, and 9z’s run at IEM Cologne has held that rule true. However, while some of those runs have benefited from favourable matchups, 9z’s is absolutely legit.
The roster took down Parivision, Vitality, and The MongolZ, running Spirit incredibly close in one of their two losses. The roster’s heroics are remarkable, almost inexplicable in their unprecedented nature. Luciano ‘luchov’ Herrera, Franco ‘dgt’ Garcia, and Matias ‘HAUSOPEEK’ Ibañez Hernandez are on fire, matching or surpassing their stats against weak regional opposition at a Major.
Whatever happens, the event is a huge success for the roster, catapulting the roster up the VRS rankings and practically guaranteeing Tier 1 invites.
Speaking of fairytales, FaZe got from Stage 1 to the Grand Finals at the last major. BetBoom has the opportunity to repeat that feat after a wonderful display of excellent Counter-Strike.
Kirill ‘Boombl4’ Mikhaylov has always been a big event player, winning everything there was to win in NAVI, but making Stage 3 with this roster, with a stand-in is up there with any achievement in his career.
Considering the disruption a stand-in causes, BetBoom’s ability to remain competitive and show strong fundamentals during that time is truly a testament to how well the team is coached.
Let us know your Pick’ems predictions on Insider Gaming’s Discord!
For other news, see the details of Insider Gaming’s Showcase!
Darragh is an Esports Journalist for Insider Gaming specialising in Counter-Strike. He loves to explore how esports teams work, or why they very often do not.
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